Project Risk Assessment Matrix
Identifies project risks, rates their likelihood and impact, and provides mitigation strategies in a structured matrix.
Act as a senior project manager with PMP certification working in the [industry] sector. Create a risk assessment for a project to [project description] with a timeline of [duration], a budget of [budget], and a team of [team size]. The target audience for this document is the project steering committee. For each risk, format the output as a structured table with columns for: risk description, category, likelihood (1-5), impact (1-5), risk score (likelihood x impact), risk level, mitigation strategy, contingency plan, and risk owner. Identify 10 risks across these categories: technical (3), resource/people (2), scope (2), external/market (2), budget (1). Define risk levels as: Critical if score is above 20, High for 15-20, Medium for 8-14, Low if below 8. You must ensure each mitigation strategy is specific and actionable. For example, 'assign a backup developer with the same skill set' rather than 'have a contingency plan'. Avoid generic risks such as 'things might go wrong'. Only include risks relevant to the project type and industry. Add a risk heat map summary section and list 3 early warning indicators for the top-rated risk.
Why this prompt works
Generic risk lists are the failure mode here, and this prompt fights it on three fronts. First, the category quotas (3 technical, 2 resource, 2 scope, 2 external, 1 budget) prevent the model from producing 10 technical risks because that's the easiest category to populate. Second, the likelihood-times-impact scoring with explicit thresholds turns the output from a list into a prioritised matrix. Third, the 'specific and actionable' rule for mitigation strategies blocks the model from writing 'have a contingency plan' as a mitigation, which is otherwise its default. The 'early warning indicators for the top-rated risk' addition is the part that converts the document from theatre to operational use.
When to reach for it
- You're kicking off a project and the steering committee wants a documented risk view before approving the budget.
- You're inheriting a project mid-flight and need to surface risks the previous PM hadn't documented.
- You're applying for funding or a contract that requires a risk register as part of the bid.
- You're running a post-mortem on a similar past project and want to map the risks that materialised against ones you should have predicted.
How to customise it
Project type drives the risk distribution. A software build has different technical risks than a regulatory submission; tell the model what kind of project it is in the description. The team size field affects resource risks: a 3-person team has different risk shapes than a 30-person one. For projects with hard external dependencies (regulatory approval, third-party API availability), call them out explicitly in the description; the model treats 'external/market' broadly and might miss specific dependency risks if not prompted.
What good output looks like
A risk register table with 10 risks across the five named categories, columns for description, likelihood, impact, score, level, mitigation, contingency, and owner. Then a heat map summary section, then 3 early-warning indicators for the top-rated risk. Total length 1,500 to 2,500 words. The risk register pastes cleanly into a project doc; the early-warning indicators are the most actionable output for the PM running the project week-to-week.
Watch out for
The likelihood and impact scores are model-assigned and tend to cluster in the middle of the range (3s and 4s out of 5). If every score is 3 or 4, the matrix loses its discriminating power. Ask the model to spread the scores realistically, with at least two below 3 and at least two above 4. The early-warning indicators on the top risk are usually generic on the first pass; ask for 'three specific events you would expect to see in the next 4 weeks if this risk is materialising' to sharpen them.
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